CC8C. Staying Current—What Are the Consequences of Global Warming?

Articles from 2025

2025-03-10. Greenhouse gases reduce the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit. By William E. Parker et al, Nature Sustainability. Abstract: Anthropogenic contributions of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere have been observed to cause cooling and contraction in the thermosphere, which is projected to continue for many decades. This contraction results in a secular reduction in atmospheric mass density where most satellites operate in low Earth orbit. Decreasing density reduces drag on debris objects and extends their lifetime in orbit, posing a persistent collision hazard to other satellites and risking the cascading generation of more debris. This work uses projected CO₂ emissions from the shared socio-economic pathways to investigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit. The instantaneous Kessler capacity is introduced to compute the maximum number and optimal distribution of characteristic satellites that keep debris populations in stable equilibrium. Modelled CO₂ emissions scenarios from years 2000–2100 indicate a potential 50–66% reduction in satellite carrying capacity between the altitudes of 200 and 1,000 km. Considering the recent, rapid expansion in the number of satellites in low Earth orbit, understanding environmental variability and its impact on sustainable operations is necessary to prevent over-exploitation of the region. Full article at https://gss.lawrencehallofscience.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=23034&action=edit.

2025-03-03. Extreme Heat and Rain Turned These Arctic Lakes Brown. By Larissa G. Capella, Eos/AGU. Excerpt: Jasmine Saros, a lake ecologist at the University of Maine, has been studying Arctic lakes in Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, since 2013, …in 2023, they returned to find many once-clear lakes had turned brown. …Lake browning often results from high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, primarily from decaying vegetation. It can also be caused by an increase in iron, typically resulting from natural processes such as weathering of iron-rich soils and rocks into the water, as well as anthropogenic influences such as agricultural runoff and industrial discharges. Data from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5)…showed that nine atmospheric rivers had dumped precipitation over the area between September and October of 2022. Atmospheric rivers are known for transporting moisture, but they can also carry warm air. The ERA data also highlighted that September 2022 was the hottest and wettest September on record in West Greenland since 1940. By early July 2023, when Saros and her colleagues were back on the lake, dissolved organic carbon levels had risen by 22% compared to the 2013–2023 average. Iron concentrations had increased 1,000%. …“Those atmospheric rivers drove not only record precipitation but also record heat,” Saros said. Higher temperatures caused precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow. The heavy rainfall saturated the landscape, thawed permafrost, and released organic material and iron into the lakes, turning them brown, she explained. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.… Full article at https://eos.org/articles/extreme-heat-and-rain-turned-these-arctic-lakes-brown.

2025-02-26. Extreme Heat Linked to Accelerated Aging in Older Adults, Study Finds. By Mohana Ravindranath, The New York Times. Excerpt: Extreme heat can be particularly dangerous for older people, putting them at increased risk for heat stroke and death. But could it also affect how their DNA functions, and accelerate the aging process itself? A new study, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, suggests it could. The analysis of over 3,600 older adults in the United States found that those living in neighborhoods prone to extreme heat — classified as 90 degrees or above — showed more accelerated aging at a molecular level compared with those in areas less prone to extreme heat. The findings suggest that heat waves and rising temperatures from climate change could be chemically modifying people’s DNA and speeding up their biological aging. The study authors estimated that a person living in an area that reached 90 degrees or above for 140 days or more in a year could age up to 14 months faster than someone in an area with fewer than 10 extreme heat days a year…. Full article at https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/well/heat-aging-older-people.html.

2025-02-20. New research shows mosquitoes may be able to adapt to warming temperatures. By UC Berkeley Public Health. Excerpt: A new study led by a UC Berkeley School of Public Health Environmental Health Sciences postdoctoral scholar shows that mosquitoes may be more able to adapt to climate change and rising temperatures than previously thought. “The most common prediction of how global change will affect mosquitoes and mosquito-borne disease is that populations will shift to higher altitudes and higher latitudes,” said lead author Lisa Couper. “That is assuming mosquitoes won’t adapt to heat. But mosquitoes have all sorts of adaptive capabilities.” Mosquito-borne diseases collectively cause nearly one million deaths each year world-wide, including dengue, malaria, and West Nile virus, among others. …The study raised mosquito larva in both normal and high temperatures, then sequenced the genome of more than 200 individual insects. The genetic analysis showed that mosquitoes raised in the high temperature setting had …structural changes to their DNA–that showed adaptations to the hotter conditions. The heat tolerance the research team saw “exceeds that of projected climate warming,” according to the published paper, which appeared in PNAS in January…. Full article at https://publichealth.berkeley.edu/news-media/research-highlights/mosquitoes-may-be-able-to-adapt-to-warming-temperatures.

2025-02-06. Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming. By Julienne C. Stroeve et al, Science. Abstract: Under current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, global warming is projected to reach 2.7°C above preindustrial levels. In this review, we show that at such a level of warming, the Arctic would be transformed beyond contemporary recognition: Virtually every day of the year would have air temperatures higher than preindustrial extremes, the Arctic Ocean would be essentially ice free for several months in summer, the area of Greenland that reaches melting temperatures for at least a month would roughly quadruple, and the area of permafrost would be roughly half of what it was in preindustrial times. These geophysical changes go along with widespread ecosystem disruptions and infrastructure damage, which, as we show here, could be substantially reduced by increased efforts to limit global warming…. Full article at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ads1549. See also Arctic Ice Is Getting Smoother and Moving Faster (Eos/AGU).

2025-02-03. Increased crevassing across accelerating Greenland Ice Sheet margins. By Thomas R. Chudley et al, Nature Geoscience. Excerpt: The Greenland Ice Sheet, which measures more than 3 kilometers at its thickest point and covers an area three times the size of Texas, is the world’s second largest body of ice. If all of it were to melt, the world’s oceans would rise a whopping seven meters. And while such a complete meltdown would likely take thousands of years, Greenland—already one of the largest contributors to sea level rise—is poised to add up to 30 centimeters by 2100. Now, new research published in Nature Geoscience has revealed that this enormous mass of ice is breaking apart faster than expected…. Full article at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01636-6.

2025-01-31. Warmer, more crowded cities bring out the rats. By Elizabeth Pennisi, Science. Excerpt: Climate change emerged as a driving factor behind urban rat swarms, the researchers report today in Science Advances. As temperatures rise, they conclude, and people flock to urban areas and convert formerly “green” spaces into neighborhoods and shopping centers, they created a perfect storm for rat populations to explode. And the city that’s fared the worst over the past decade? Washington, D.C….. Full article at https://www.science.org/content/article/warmer-more-crowded-cities-bring-out-rats.

2025-01-30. Climate change has really messed up polar bears’ lives. By Louise C. Archer et al, Science. Summary: …polar bear populations have declined over the past 50 years as the extent of sea ice has decreased. Archer et al. used data collected from polar bears in the western Hudson Bay Area over nearly all of that time…. Energetic patterns at the individual level successfully predicted larger-scale population dynamics. A single driver, energy limitation, emerged as being responsible for the population decline, confirming that polar bears face food shortages due to the loss of ice. —Sacha Vignieri…. Full article at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp3752.

2025-01-29. Variable vertical land motion and its impacts on sea level rise projections. By https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ads8163 et al, Science. Abstract: Coastal vertical land motion (VLM), including uplift and subsidence, can greatly alter relative sea level projections and flood mitigations plans. Yet, current projection frameworks, such as the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, often underestimate VLM by relying on regional linear estimates. Using high-resolution (90-meter) satellite data from 2015 to 2023, we provide local VLM estimates for California and assess their contribution to sea level rise both now and in future. Our findings reveal that regional estimates substantially understate sea level rise in parts of San Francisco and Los Angeles, projecting more than double the expected rise by 2050. Additionally, temporally variable (nonlinear) VLM, driven by factors such as hydrocarbon and groundwater extraction, can increase uncertainties in 2050 projections by up to 0.4 meters in certain areas of Los Angeles and San Diego. This study highlights the critical need to include local VLM and its uncertainties in sea level rise assessments to improve coastal management and ensure effective adaptation efforts. Full paper at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ads8163.

2025-01-21. A Seychelles Shoreline Resists the Rising Seas. By Caroline Hasler, Eos/AGU. Excerpt: With global sea levels projected to rise 44 centimeters (17 inches) by the end of the century, atolls such as Aldabra—a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site in Seychelles and home to the world’s largest population of giant tortoises—may be at risk of sinking into the ocean. A new study, however, shows that despite consistently rising sea levels, most of Aldabra’s shoreline hasn’t changed since 1960. …An atoll forms when corals attach to the margins of a volcanic island or platform in the ocean. Over time, the volcano is eroded and subsides into the sea, leaving a ring-shaped reef. Winds and waves deposit crushed coral from surrounding reefs on top of the ring, ultimately forming islands that rise above sea level. …“Our research shows that Aldabra’s resilience to sea level rise is likely linked to its high protection status. This serves as a crucial lesson, especially now, when a significant tourism development within the Aldabra group of islands just started,” Constance wrote…. Full article at https://eos.org/articles/a-seychelles-shoreline-resists-the-rising-seas.

2025-01-16. The growing threat of multiyear droughts. By David L. Hoover and William K. Smith, Science. Excerpt: Droughts have major societal and ecological impacts, including drinking water shortages, crop failures, tree mortality, wildfires, and reduced ecosystem productivity (1). Shifts in the hydrological cycle and continued warming with climate change are leading to rapidly evolving droughts that are more intense and longer lasting (2). Extreme but short-term droughts (<1 year) can have a wide range of consequences, depending on the severity and timing of the drought as well as an ecosystem’s resistance (3, 4). However, as a drought extends to a multiyear event, these ecological effects can amplify because short-lived buffering from physiological adaptations or water storage may weaken, leading to longer-lasting results (4). On page 278 of this issue, Chen et al. (5) report that increasing precipitation anomalies and atmospheric moisture demands are leading to multiyear droughts with growing impacts on vegetation. This highlights the need to better understand the ecological responses to such drought events…. Full article at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adu7419.

2025-01-16. Climate change may be driving spread of a deadly fungus from U.S. Southwest. By Meredith Wadman, Science. Excerpt: …The disease [Coccidioides fungus] causes …Valley fever is familiar in the Southwest, where it has infected wildland firefighters; carrot, beet, and radish pickers; solar power farm builders; and cast and crew members on a Ventura County film set. …the fungal spores, nourished in the warm, wet confines of the lung, morph into structures called spherules that burst to release boatloads of tiny endospores that become new spherules, continuing the cycle. Most of these people have a flulike illness lasting weeks or months. But 5% to 10% of cases result in lifelong lung infections, sometimes forcing people to be on powerful antifungal medications permanently. …cases are escalating fast. Diagnoses …have ballooned from about 2800 annually at the turn of the century to about 20,000 in 2023, with at least 200 people dying each year. Arizona and California, where roughly 97% of U.S. cases are reported, have seen dramatic increases recently: Incidence in Arizona has grown by 73% in the past 10 years—to 146 cases per 100,000 people. In California, incidence quadrupled between 2014 and 2023 to 23.2 cases per 100,000 people. …One likely contributor is a warming climate. The fungus thrives in hot, dry soil where it can get the best of competitors by going dormant during drought, then rebounding after rain returns. Valley fever cases tend to spike after wet winters that follow droughts, says Tom Chiller, chief of the mycotic diseases branch at CDC…. Full article at https://www.science.org/content/article/climate-change-may-be-driving-spread-deadly-fungus-u-s-southwest.

2025-01-12. Rising tides could wipe out Pacifica, but residents can’t agree on how to respond. By Connor Letourneau, San Francisco Chronicle. Excerpt: “When people fight the ocean,” [Pacifica, City Council member Christine] Boles said, “the ocean always wins.” …Pacifica, a picturesque surf town of roughly 35,000 just south of San Francisco, has become an important case study for the increasingly urgent questions climate change raises for many coastal communities. Should residents stay to defend their homes from rising tides that grow fiercer by the year? Or, should they admit defeat and cede the land back to nature? …“Managed retreat” — a term coined by geologists to describe the process of removing people, homes and businesses from at-risk areas — is at the root of the debate. …“We can’t build seawalls high enough to protect us forever,” said Gary Griggs, a professor of Earth and planetary sciences at UC Santa Cruz. “So, in the long run, it’s either going to be managed retreat or unmanaged retreat. It’s up to each community to decide.”… Full article at https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/pacifica-climate-change-rising-oceans-20007281.php.

2025-01-10. “Exceptional” Global Warming Spike Continued in 2024. By Kimberly M. S. Cartier, Eos/AGU. Excerpt: More than 3 billion people experienced their hottest year ever in 2024 because of anthropogenic climate change. The world is speeding toward its 1.5°C warming target. …“Even if we likely exceeded [1.5°C] this year, that doesn’t mean that we’ve exceeded it in the context of the Paris accord, which is over a longer time period,” Schmidt said. “But I will say that we anticipate future global warming as long as we are emitting greenhouse gases, and until we get to net zero, we will not get a leveling off of global mean temperature.”…. Full article at https://eos.org/articles/exceptional-global-warming-spike-continued-in-2024.

2025-01-08. Warm Seawater Encroaches on Major Antarctic Ice Shelf. By Sarah Stanley, Eos/AGU. Excerpt: The vast Antarctic Ice Sheet holds more than half of Earth’s freshwater. In several places around the continent, the ice extends over the ocean, where it forms large floating shelves. Observations suggest many of these ice shelves are thinning as they melt from below, with implications for ocean dynamics, global sea level, and Earth’s climate. For now, the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf—one of Antarctica’s biggest, extending over the Weddell Sea—appears to be relatively stable, thanks to near-freezing currents circulating over the continental shelf beneath it. However, climate models predict that shifting ocean currents may bring warmer water to the continental shelf in the future. To gain a clearer picture of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf’s future, Steiger et al. analyzed water temperature and velocity data from 2017 to 2021. …In this study, researchers found that the summertime flow of warm water occurs not just along the Filchner Trough but also along a second, smaller trough to the east and that the relative importance of each path varies from year to year. During warmer-than-average years, the warm water flows more rapidly across the continental shelf…. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020700, 2024). Full article at https://eos.org/research-spotlights/warm-seawater-encroaches-on-major-antarctic-ice-shelf.

2025-01-03. A New Tornado Database Helps Researchers Worldwide. By Andrew J. Wight, Eos/AGU. Excerpt: In the past 70 years, more than 75,000 tornadoes have been recorded in the United States. Recordkeeping of these phenomena outside this region has been largely fragmented, sitting isolated in books, government databases, and research archives. But a new effort to scour as many publicly accessible records as possible is highlighting the scale of this hazard around the world. In a new study, Malcolm Maas, an undergraduate student at the University of Maryland, College Park, and a team of tornado researchers compiled a tornado database that they hope will boost tornado research globally. …The United States accounts for 21,548 of the recorded fatalities in the database published by Maas and his collaborators. But tornadoes in other countries wreak havoc as well: Bangladesh accounts for 8,325 fatalities in the database, India has seen 1,473, and the rest of the world combined accounts for 3,824…. Full article at https://eos.org/articles/a-new-tornado-database-helps-researchers-worldwide.

2025-01-02. Disentangling the drivers of wildfires. By Jianbang Gan, Science. Excerpt: Wildfire occurrence and scale worldwide have risen over recent decades, with the most destructive wildfires in North America taking place in the past decade (1, 2). …On page 91 of this issue, Wang et al. (3) report the key drivers of burn severity…. …These studies led to the development of predictive models that are used to project wildfire effects under different scenarios over time in locations where no historical fires have been recorded. However, the drivers of wildfire effects are complex and involve multiple interlinked factors, such as climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity. …Among all the factors, fuel aridity, which reflects the abundance and moisture content of flammable vegetative fuels, was determined to be the primary driver for most Canadian forest fires between 1981 and 2020. …Wang et al. found a large increase in burn severity in northern Canada compared with other regions in Canada. …Whereas weather condition was the dominant driver of the effect of wildfires in northern Canada, fuel aridity and vegetation type were key drivers of wildfires in southern areas. …From an ecological perspective, the increase in fire activity in boreal forests, especially in the northern regions of the world, has raised grave concerns about the health and function of biomes that act as important carbon sinks (11). …Cooperation between the US, Canada, and Russia, which share 93% of the global boreal forest, is needed to effectively manage fire while preserving this valuable ecosystem of the northern hemisphere (12)…. Full article at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adu5463.

2025-01-01. The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump. By Dennis M. Hogan, Guest Essay for The New York Times. Excerpt: In 2023, …July, the middle of Panama’s rainy season. But the rains had been sparse, and water levels in the canal had sunk to troubling lows. Without freshwater from rain, our guide explained, the locks on the canal could not operate. …the true threat to U.S. commerce through Panama. If the goal is securing affordable access to the transit point over the long term, it is climate change, not Chinese influence, that U.S. policymakers should worry about. …Sending a single ship through the canal’s locks can use around 50 million gallons of water, mainly freshwater collected from Lake Gatún. Though the canal is, for the moment, operating at full capacity, a drier climate and greater demand for drinking water have in recent years reduced the volume of available water. That has forced the state-run Panama Canal Authority at times to limit the number of daily passages through the canal, at one point by as much as 40 percent. …With less rain, the reservoirs fill up more slowly, which means less water available to operate the locks, which means fewer ships can pass. Hence, the 2023-24 drought, among the worst on record, slowed transits and drove up transit prices, causing long delays, more expensive consumer goods and greater instability in shipping routes. …The limited number of passages has led to auctions for passage rights that further inflated the growing cost of shipping goods through the canal. (The canal authority increased tolls just before the 2023 drought began.) … Full article at https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/opinion/panama-canal-trump-china-drought.html.

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